![]() Other significant causes of death, including cancer and dementia, are at or below normal levels. Deaths from diabetes, the urinary system, and respiratory infections are also elevated, though for the latter most of the excess is from COVID. For example, heart disease, heart failure and circulatory diseases. Although this is not explicitly age-standardised, allowance has been made to allow for trends.Ĭardiovascular causes show significant excess mortality. This allows us to examine deaths by cause, location, and age-group (but currently not combinations of these). One helpful source is the analysis of excess mortality in England provided by the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID). Since COVID does not explain all the recent excess we need to look at other causes. COVID was the underlying cause for 2,800 of these and may also have contributed to others. There have been around 4,500 deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate in the last eight weeks. Taking this approach, the Continuous Mortality Investigation report 8,200 excess deaths in the last eight weeks. This adjusts for changes in population size and age distribution. The best way to address this is age-standardisation. A calculation which simply compares the number of deaths this year to a historical average will overstate excess mortality. Like many developed countries the UK has an ageing population, so the trend is for deaths to increase. Here we look closer at recent mortality and what can and cannot be inferred from the data available. With such a large loss of life the desire to point to underlying causes is understandable, but we must take care not to be too simplistic with our explanations. Speculation is rife as to the underlying causes with suggestions such as ‘lockdown effects feared to be killing more people than COVID’. The picture worsened as we moved into spring and summer, with the Office for National Statistics reporting 11,600 more deaths than average in the last eight weeks, only a small fraction of which arose during the heatwave.Įxcess deaths, typically a niche interest for actuaries and demographers, have made front page news. Madeleine Stone, Big Brother Watch Legal and Policy Officer.The first two years of the pandemic brought a tragic loss of life, with over 120,000 excess deaths, almost all of which were a direct result of COVID-19.Įarly in 2022 there were fewer deaths than normal for the time of year. It’s starting to be feel like Tony Blair is trying to finish off the failed ID cards project of his premiership. Public health should be based on education, encouragement and support, not exclusion and punishment. Indeed Nicola Sturgeon let it slip that allowing people to take a test instead of showing vaccine status would “let people off the hook” of vaccination. At some point people who haven’t been vaccinated (for whatever medical, religious or philosophical reason) will be forced to pay through the nose, just to participate in society.Īgainst this background, it is not surprising that Covid passes are seen by many as a tool of coercion. Not only this, but there are already suggestions from the Government that lateral flow tests will not be free forever. The FDA was scathing about the tests, warning Americans to throw them in the bin rather than use them. The Innova lateral flow tests bought in bulk by the UK have questionable accuracy for healthy, asymptomatic people - that is, the very way they are used for Covid passes. ![]() Lateral flow tests, which are currently an option for those presenting their Covid status in Wales, are seen by some as an alternative approach because it bypasses the coercive and discriminatory elements of a vaccine-only pass. Data published by the UK Health Security Agency suggests that Covid rates are similar between over-18s who have received a Covid vaccine and those who haven’t. Secondly, case rates are climbing, despite a vaccine uptake of over 85%. For one, not only will ‘vaccinated only’ spaces still see coronavirus circulating but they could create an unrealistic sense of invulnerability among those visiting. If drinking, dancing and socialising were limited only to those who have received two doses of a Covid jab, this line of reasoning assumes, we’d get on top of case rates. Their proposal rests on the assumption that unvaccinated people are responsible for the spread of coronavirus, and that vaccinated-only gatherings are the only safe space. Vaccine passes are no solution to coronavirus transmission. With so many things he might be turning his attention to at this time, the former PM’s obsession with vaccine passports is starting to seem odd. For the third time, Tony Blair and his Institute are calling on the Government to introduce Covid passes as “a matter of priority”, asserting that they will reduce cases to a “fraction” of their current rate.
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